The Economist On Jubaland: The Sooty Campaign of Dangerous Disinformation.

Earlier this year I ran a series of derisive tweets on Twitter poking fun at ‘Somali Federalism’ and the resultant this-and-that Federal State (Some exist in illusory names only, others more genuine), that mushroomed overnight; their ridiculous names, unsavory flags and everything in between.   Most are not more than a clan fiefdom.  Fela Kuti, the departed Nigerian musician and political activist, once declared his communal compound in Lagos Kalakuta Republic in protest. Unlike some of these this-and-that Federal States of Somalia, no disrespect to Fela, one of my favorite African musicians, his Kalakuta Republic had a free health clinic and a recording studio.  It was later razed to the ground by the incensed Nigerian government.  So I referred to these Somali phenomena as Kalakuta Republics. The federal Somali constitution has since been approved by the National Constituent Assembly. It is the current constitution of the country, albeit provisionally, awaiting approval by the Somali people.  

Federalism, however unsuited it might seem to some, it has come to this and the reality must be accepted. Formation of a Federal State by two or more of the 18 districts of Somalia is sanctioned by the federal constitution.  Federal States came into existence and others are encouraged to do so by the central government in Mogadishu with its least interference.   It is against this backdrop that one such Federal State is mooted by the local clan elders of the Lower Juba, Middle Juba and the Gedo region and coordinated by IGAD-Jubaland Initiatives. People of the Jubas publicly demonstrated their support.  Alas! President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the central government would have none of that. Ironically, the president went on record exhorting residents of Baladweyn to shape their own local administration, with absolutely no interference from the central government.  Instead President Hassan insists he names administration for Jubaland from Mogadishu. Grand double-standard, one would say.  

Flimsy, some even farcical, excuses are tossed around. The inclusivity of a future Jubaland State is doubted although the process is ongoing and it’s as fairly inclusive as it could get.  The UN charcoal ban is violated. Raskamboni Brigade that rid Kismayo and much of Lower Juba of AlShabaab are expediently dismissed as ONLF to play with Ethiopian emotions, although Ethiopia is part of the IGAD Jubaland Initiatives. These are all collusions to kill the proverbial baby before it is even born. The president’s un-statesman-like, unfortunate stand evokes memories of Mogadishu-Kismayo clan animosity of the 90s. 

Among Somalis it is conveniently tempting to explain issues away citing clan affiliation. Your confusing message, Mr President, and subsequent silence are creating a whole lot of negative hullabaloo.  It can only make it easier for one to go down that route of explaining things.

The Kismayo-Jubaland issue has caused a stir in the media. A concerted media effort to derail the Jubaland Initiatives at any cost is ongoing. Flood gates of emotion are spewed in portals. At least this is expected in the prejudiced Somali media. Partisan Somali media houses like Shabeele Media are leading the crusade to discredit the Jubaland Initiatives.  Unrestrained clan bigotry paraded in public by arriviste journalists. It is getting so heated even Somali intellectuals are taking centre stage and engaging in political pillow fights. The disgusting arguments put forth by some of the detractors of the Jubaland Initiatives are the stuff of unadulterated clan chauvinism. Even non-Somali international news sites are falling for it. 

 For instance, this one that appeared on Africa Review news website titled,’ Kismayo : A Disaster Waiting To Happen’, penned by a certain Mr Kamaluddin ( Perhaps now  taken down by Africa Review following repeated protestations on twitter). Such pieces, besides being fraught with factual errors, would best come complete with a disclaimer, Warning: Graphic nincompoopery! Reader discretion strongly advised. 

Africa Review tweeted back: ‘Noted. However, the personal opinions of writers who contribute to Africa Review are their own only.”  But surely there must be a mechanism in place to check the veracity of opinions expressed. What about ethics and professionalism. 

This piece http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21566710-it-vital-new-government-controls-countrys-ports-and-trade-it by The Economist caught my attention, a lopsided one made to pass as pithy analysis. The piece is static and one dimensional if not utter cock and bull story.  The writer dabbles in what is now becoming charcoal politics. We’re informed of the UN charcoal ban in place and the devastating effect of charcoal trade on Somali flora, but follows up with an exaggeration that the $ 40m proceeds from the charcoal stock pile could ‘affect fate of Somalia’s new government’. How? If it didn’t ‘affect fate of Somalia’s new government’ during AlShabaab’s, avowed government enemy, reign. Regardless of the substantial charcoal proceeds the Shabaab were routed.  Scare tactics.  In the process the writer concocts an imaginary threat to the central government therefore justifying the ‘new government’s control’ of Kismayo.

 It is agreed, logically ‘you can’t turn charcoal back into tree’.  Common sense dictates selling it. It is of utmost importance not to alienate the local business people who own the stockpile and unduly punish them. But who said more trees would be severed for charcoal? 

Surely this writer must be impressed by his charcoal politics. He dismisses Kenyans as ‘Charcoal-trading’ and calls ‘America’ and ‘Britain’ to stop them. Yes. Kenyans are the devil reincarnates while the Ugandans, Burundians, Djiboutians, and Ethiopians are liberators worthy of praise. Cool story.

The writer goes on and writes with blithe ignorance or duplicity of the matter. ‘He (the president) wants time to put in place and bolster new port authorities to channel revenues back to the central’. The writer once again flaunts his fatuousness and his uninformed analysis of Somalia’s political realities. Aren’t we a federal republic?

 The writer’s lack of profundity and grasp of the real issue is further laid bare. The writer exposes his/ her proclivity to engage in irresponsible rumor mongering that fuels the whole leitmotif of the piece.  Ahmed ‘Madobe’ for all his steadfastness in the war against AlShabaab deserves appreciation even recognition. Yet the writer paints a picture of a mercenary, rogue warlord on the loose aided by his Kenyan Somali kinship for his own convenience. It is laughable how the writer touts clan ambitions for Kismayo as if the Banadir administration-the new government’s seat-is any better in this department.  

 The Economist’s writer would want us to believe that Kismayo and Jubaland are only about Ahmed Mohamed Islam ‘Madobe’, charcoal, contraband sugar and the port. It is more than that. It is about the constitutional right to a local administration. 

Where are the federal constitution and the ongoing legitimate and reasonably inclusive Jubaland Initiative in all of these?  Where are Amisom and IGAD?  And his piece is left desperately crying for context.  

The writer’s main accomplishment is presenting the president as self-righteous tree-hugger fighting greedy lumberers somewhere in the Amazon, which needless to say, is beside the point.

A pertinent question begs, what makes the Central Government think it could control Kismayo when it can’t even properly secure Banadir?  Or is it the type of twisted political dispensations that are an indisputably of Somali provenance.  Grand hallucinations of the proverbial weary travelers scale. ‘Waan socon waynaye aan orodno.’ –‘Too weak to walk, lets run’! 

It goes without saying; the unduly politicizing of the issue does a disservice to the ambitions of the denizens of the Jubbas and Gedo to have at least a modicum of governance and stability. 

On the other hand, a stable and peaceful Jubaland is an invaluable asset in the bottom up approach of rebuilding Somalia rather than a threat.  And the Somali government ought to recognize it as such.  

By and large, this deliberate sooty disinformation partly by the Central government and media doesn’t help an iota and only further complicates matters and endangers peace.  

Where is objectivity and truth? Wait. Am I naïve to expect fairness in a failed nation (ooops! It is unbecoming of a proud Somali to be so blasphemous) like ours?

Otherwise; not all Kalakuta Republics are treated the same, some are more legal and obviously palatable than others. Straight from the Animal Farm!

The ‘International Community’ and the ‘Rejectionists’: A match Made In hell.

Ever since Somalia’s implosion and its subsequent anarchic state, the UN, US, EU, the Arab League, IGAD and most recently the African Union getting actively involved in resolving the Somalia conundrum hasn’t borne, as of now, fruition. The Road Map and the draft constitution are the latest in a long catalogue of prescriptions to heal an intractable wound that is Somalia. For the umpteenth time, the IC is attempting to fix the Somalia problem and I’m afraid it might prove futile once again.

 Too Many Cooks.

Something must be fundamentally wrong with the way the IC does things. The IC is nothing more than an eclectic collection of states with as much divergent interest and goals.

Ethiopia’s Meles Zenawi- the Horn viceroy of America’s ‘war on terror’ is hell-bent on rooting out Alqaeda-linked groups in Somalia that harbor hostile, ‘irredentist’ sentiments. Kenya’s official line is to create a buffer zone along it is frontier with Somalia to safeguard her own national security. Note, both Kenya and Ethiopia have had border disputes with Somalia and administer Somali lands with significant Somali population-NFD and Ogaden respectively. A strong Somalia with a robust army will definitely not serve them well, lest they lose the Somali regions they rule over.

If it were not for terrorism and piracy, US would like to see Somalia die a slow painful death. The US learnt to keep distance, literally, particularly after the ‘Black Hawk Down’ debacle, by use of proxies and drone attacks.

Uganda’s is to keep its soldier’s pockets lined and keep them busy. Keeping Generals kicking their heels around is a recipe for coup d’etat. Any dictator worth his salt won’t commit such a cardinal sin. However, Uganda’s military under Amisom banner deserves credit for wresting Mogadishu away from AlShabaab and holding it in one piece-a feat they share with the 2006 Islamic Courts Union.

Turkey, the newest kid on the block, pours in millions in aid and reconstruction, much appreciated by Somalis. Turkey’s claim that their aid to Somalia is purely humanitarian is tinged with business interests. Turkey is to host a conference on Somalia in June.

The UK has weighed in and already has a conference on Somalia under its belt. The UK is primarily beckoned by the hydrocarbons that lie under Somalia.

Qatar, a country described as ‘a pygmy with a punch of a giant’, along with Eritrea is accused of funding the AlQaeda-linked Shabaab. And many more of what Somalia Special Envoy to the US, Abukar Arman, calls ‘Ghost Lords’ lurks in the shadows, yet spoiling the broth and leave a bitter taste in the mouths of peace-deprived Somalis.

Treating the Symptoms.

Over the years, IC’s attempt at tackling the Somali crisis yielded fantastic semantics. Dual track policy-entails dealing directly with armed Non-State actors to curtail the influence of terrorism and, or restore semblance of governance in regions out of the reach of the transitional government. This led to the mushrooming mini client states under different external actors, weakening the authority of the TFG in the eyes of the public and further Balkanizing the country. Puntland, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a, Galmudug State, Ras Kamboni Brigade are some of the ‘Stakeholders’, as if Somalia was a corporate entity to buy shares in.

Operation Atalanta currently throws obscene amounts of funds at tackling piracy offshore, yet the threat could easily be eliminated altogether by investing in restoration of an effective government.

Eight years later and $60m less, we’re sitting on a draft constitution that has the potential to further divide Somalis. Questions on the minds of Somalis are: Why do we need a constitution, of all times, now. Most importantly, will it lead to peace and stability? How will it aid in reclaiming the country back from AlShabaab and warlords? Implementing a constitution, though provisional, without public ratification is a cause for concern among Somalis. Odayaasha beelaha-traditional clan elders will select 825 delegates that will consider the draft constitution for two weeks from May 15^th, and then vote.  There is already rumor of massive corruption, phony clan elders and vote buying at the traditional elder’s conference in Mogadishu. Many doubt the integrity and competence of the Odayaasha beelaha, in undertaking such a complicated and significant process that could determine the trajectory of the country at these cross-roads.

‘Rejectionism’ as a Policy.

Since the fall of the last central authority of Somalia, an unfortunate culture of ‘rejectionism’ has taken root. This ‘rejectionism’ is hinged on a flawed premise of say no,no,no,and no without reason or any substantial argument. The opinion leaders of ‘rejectionism’ are none other than those who led Somalia down the gutter. Proponents of ‘rejectionism’ are the vultures of the Somalia carcass who have to a lot to gain from the preservation of the status quo. War means power, anarchy means more wealth to be made, the threat of hunger and disease means more western NGOs hiring them for security, renting their spacious warehouses to store food aid, or being contracted as logistics transporters. These vultures perfected the art of war profiteering. Forget the weak TFG; these vultures are the De Facto government in Somalia.

The rejectionists come in all forms. Pre-2006 warlords now turned ‘legislators’ in a bloated parliament, rearing their ugly head again. They believe if they succeed in averting a strong central authority beyond August, they may have a shot at power and roadblocks again, a renaissance of sorts. These are the most ruthless who visited unimaginable horrors on the Somali populace for close to two decades. Secondly, ‘Islamist’ terrorist –AlShabaab, though there is nothing Islamic about them, that took over from the warlords, if anything, made  the Somali ordeal more dramatic by introducing suicide bombing, draconian punishment, and giving flight to their fantasy-Global Jihad. They’re hell-bent on creating lair for their foreign AlQaeda bedfellows and all those who are persona non-grata in their countries of origin. Lastly, there is the globe-trotting, foreign-passport-wielding Diaspora, who forsook their families to ‘save’ Somalia. They’re power hungry; they’ll oppose anything, everything as long as they’re not in Villa Somalia themselves.

The three groups above believe they can only flourish in an anarchy and lawlessness as described by the 17^th Century political philosopher, Thomas Hobbes, ‘Life is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short if there is no central authority, ’ at the expense of common, poor Somali. Make no mistake; these rejectionists will continue to naysay anything that will lead to peace and stability. Doing otherwise is akin to performing hari-kari.

For those I call ‘Vultures of the Somalia carcass’, make the bulk those vociferously opposing the draft constitution and the Road Map to end the transition. They’ve been aptly dubbed ‘Spoilers’ by IGAD, AU and the UN. IGAD, AU and the UN, unlike before, resorted to threats warning ‘Spoilers’ of ‘immediate imposition of specific measures and restrictions’ and ‘further sanctions.’

Disinforming the Disenfranchised.

For those Somalis that may have read the draft constitution will run into, not more than, their thousands, out of a target population of an estimated 10 million. The final draft is yet to be made public by IFCC-Independent Federal Constitution Commission.

The rejectionists are filling a void and are engaged in a full-blown campaign of discrediting the draft constitution. As usual they’re peddling rumors, rhetoric and plain demagoguery to blind-fold the disfavored, disenfranchised population. The draft constitution is a threat to Somalia sovereignty, they say. What sovereignty does Somalia has? Sovereignty in limbo, that is.

The IC makes all the wrong policies and the rejectionists always oppose without fail, not out of objectivity. Don’t they complement each other in complicity to lengthen the conflict?

All the while, the Somali population is either internally displaced or fled to neighboring countries and is in squalid refugee ‘concentration’ Camps: Dollo Ado, Al Kharaz, Dadaab-the biggest refugee complex anywhere in the world, where the occupant’s dietary stable is maize.

Mogadishu: Tragic stories, Headhunting and all.

Some cities have far more complex history than its current denizens, and Mogadishu has had its fair share of turbulent past and an uncertain present.

The complexity and uncertainty surrounding this city is inherent in its name. The origin of its names is purely speculative. Some fondly refer to it as Xamar- an indication of a city built on red sand. Others contend the name refers to the ‘reer Xamar’-people of reddish hue, the original inhabitants of the city. Mogadishu, the official name adapted by the city, is perhaps a corruption of the Arabic word ‘Maqcadul Shah’. Still others argue Mogadishu has a Somali connotation: ‘Maqaldisho’-the abattoir of sheep.

In the last two decades, the meaning and origin of the name of their city was Mogadishu residents’ least concern. In the aftermath of the toppling of the dictatorial regime, all hell broke lose, ghoulish warlords descended upon the city. The cosmopolitan population fled. Mogadishu was pulverized. Every totem, statue and symbol of this once glorious bustling city was desecrated, as if its destroyers were hell-bent on erasing its past. The warlords, some sit in the bloated transitional parliament, visited the most grotesque violence upon it, without contrition.

In the latest version of the violence, religious fanatics employ suicide bombers to subdue Mogadishu and puritanically rule it. It is against this backdrop that the mayor, Mohamud Ahmed Nuur ‘Tarzan,’ encouraged the populace to hunt down Alqaeda-affiliated AlShabaab for a reward. 500 US dollars for a head!  In essence he commodified the enemy. I’m not sure about the fiscal prudence of such a move by a donor-dependent TFG. I’m not about to reproach the Mayor, in a short time he has accomplished a lot. I share the views that AlShabaab must be defeated, but not this way.

The ramification of this venture is unimaginable. In no time Mogadishu will be teeming with headhunters. Headhunting is a sport Mogadishu can ill-afford. Heaven forbid! Innocent people will be sacrificed to pass as AlShabaab. Human life is worth less than $500 in Mogadishu. Mob justice will only create more chaos. I have no qualms, if the bounty was put on AlShabaab leaders’ heads.

In times of civil war, terrible things happen some bordering on comedy; tragic comedy. In the early 90s, if you happened to be from a minority clan, you had to find a close friend or relation ‘a black cat’ who hails from a powerful clan for your own security. That is what in local parlance came to be called; ‘Yaa mukulaal madow kaa ah?’ Who is your black cat? Ask any TFG official in Mogadishu who his black cat is. Amisom.

If Mogadishu is personified, it would tell many horror stories. Admirably, it defies all odds. It indefatigably refuses to die. In its bowel it harbors the elixir of life. It still maintains its almost magnetic pull on everyone. Even for those, like me, it’s the city of their birth; the yearning to step on it again is ever present, albeit a blurry memory.

For good or bad, Mogadishu is the epicenter.

Sadly, Mogadishu is a city possessed by a potent, violent genie that eludes exorcising. It’ll take more than a mayoral headhunting decree to put this genie back into the bottle.

Kenya's Somali Invasion: Risks and Opportunities.

Of lately the commentariat are rife with opinions, warnings, caution and advice. Kenya’s Somali incursion generated a plethora of reactions, excitement and pandemonium. Kenya, for the first time in its history, is at war on a foreign soil. The Kenyan government alleges that it is pursuing Alshabaab militants responsible for a spate of recent kidnappings of its most prized guests- tourists and aid workers. The operation is christened Linda Nchi- Protect the Country. But the most astonishing aspect of all these developments; is the speed with which events unfolded: British couple was kidnapped, a wheel-chair bound French woman followed and two Spanish aid workers and then the Kenyan army was 100 kms into Somali soil. There are a lot of “firsts” here. It is the first time that the Kenyan army had been this far into Somali territory. It is also the first time that Kenya had reacted this strongly. Even in the wake of the deadly August 1998 Nairobi US embassy bombing, in which many Kenyan citizens lost life and limp, the reaction was comparably lukewarm.  Not to mention all the more routine Ethiopian tribesmen who cross into Kenya to raid livestock, kill and maim.

Hitherto Kenya was an oasis of peace and stability in a sea of conflict and anarchy.   A success story; in a region marred by the dearth of peace. Many a time it is the repose of weary refugees from its troubled neighbors. Needless to say, Kenya plays host to the largest refugee complex in the world (Dadaab)-interestingly 90kms from the border with Somalia, of which 90% of the occupants are from Somalia. The much prosperous and wealthy Somali enclave of Eastleigh (Nairobi), where a sizeable Somali populace resides, merits a mention. Eastleigh, as one Kenyan official alluded is where the “head” of the terrorist Alshabaab is buried with the tail wagging in Somalia. Eastleigh, therefore, is the hub where Alshabaab conduct their financial transactions. So why go after the tail when you could decapitate the head right there and then?

Few days and 100kms into Somalia, Kenya’s armored vehicles and military hardware, are literally bogged-down in the deluge-beaten, muddy plains of the Jiiro. Perhaps, signs of more ominous things to come. You may say.

History itself is littered with lessons of failed foreign invasions however good-intentioned it may be. And so Somalia is a “special” case: No foreign force –including the mighty US marines- succeeded in claiming victory and pacifying Somalia. A most germane example is Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in 2006 to topple the UIC – (the mother of Alshabaab). The Ethiopians retreated after a blood-bath and a humiliating defeat. Thus historical odds are stuck against Kenya. The onus is on Kenya to prove otherwise in this adventurous game of Russian roulette.  

The initial reaction of the denizens of Jubba-land to the Kenyan army is one of warm welcome, at least for the time being. There was also a public demonstration in Dhobleey in support of Kenya’s invasion or liberation, whichever way you discern it. Don’t take anything at face value, for those privies to the confused political landscape of Somalia will bear witness. Allegiances shift, lines are redrawn, alliances reshape to the least of impacts much like sand dune in a strong wind. Beware of the constantly mutating Somali politics. A friend morphs into an enemy overnight and vice versa.  

As many commentators and analysts elucidated, Kenya’s invasion might hand the Shabaab a much needed life-line and relevance, as they are losing ground militarily, financially and their power and influence is on the wane. It is very likely that the Shabaab will exploit sentiments of religion to rally the population to fight, very much so if civilians are caught in the cross-fire or as a collateral damage. The dying kick of a devil is dangerous. It would be foolhardy to underestimate the threat of a major reprisal attack by the Shabaab on Kenyan soil.

 It is of utmost importance to win the war in Kenya: Winning the war of “hearts” and “minds” of the ethnic Somali-Kenyans and the Somalis from Somalia residing in Kenya. Any attempts to marginalize or witch-hunt them by the Kenyan security forces would legitimize Shabaab’s actions and radicalize them. There is already a brewing xenophobic sentiment- much like the one that was exacted on foreigners here in South Africa in 2008- toward ethnic Somalis of Eastleigh.

So Kenya’s position, after the Somali invasion is a precarious one, a balancing act and one that could potentially suck the Safari country, the tourist mecca, Kenya into conflict.

Officially, Kenya’s goal is to push the Shabaab as far as possible from its borders and that includes capturing the port-city of Kismayo-the administrative center of the Juba’s. But what is going to follow is still foggy. One whisper making the rounds says that; Kenya will install a regional administration; hinged on the reasoning that it will cushion Kenya from any future security threat from Somalia. And it makes complete sense and perhaps symbiotically beneficial.

Kenya’s war on the Shabaab has won her a lot of friends as was demonstrated in Dhabley and elsewhere. The terrorist Alshabaab are a Godless bunch, devious cowards, murderers, student-killers and manufacturers of all kinds of misery. They have been a liability on the people of the Juba’s and the Somalis in general for far too long and a thorn in the side of neighboring countries. No tear will be shed for getting rid of them with their foreign Alqaeda bedfellows. Therefore Kenya helping in eradicating then is a moral duty.

But what came as a surprise and worryingly so, is president Sharif Ahmed who went back on his promise to help Kenya fight the Shabaab, (not that it matters) and gainsaid his agreement with Kenya’s foreign minister and minister of defense in Mogadishu. Sharif Ahmed is a dummy, a profoundly dim-witted individual, his utterances puerile.  He shouts to the airwaves from his residence in the Amisom armored vehicle –that recently liberated Mogadishu from Alshabaab- and posits that Kenya, by fighting the Shabaab in the Jubas is infringing on the sovereignty of Somalia. The irony is laid bare for all to see.

The lower Jubba, the middle Jubba, and the Gedo regions-the target of Kenya’s war on Alshabaab- is a region that has been neglected for far too long and allowed to atrophy. While all the aid and effort of the international community trickled-down to Mogdishu and ended there with no tangible result (save for the recent liberation of large swaths of Mogadishu by Amisom).

With ample farmland and thriving pastoral communities coupled with access to the sea, this region is naturally endowed with resources. This makes it a more viable economic project. It can more than stand on its own as a federal state or semi-autonomous bloc awaiting Mogadishu’s sanity to return. With stability and peace, the threat of famine will be a thing of the past.

If Kenya succeeds in its endeavor to eliminate the Shabaab scourge and help establish a semi-autonomous administration in the Jubba and Gedo regions, it would no doubt add to the long list of laurels for Kenya, as a peaceful host of refugees, a peace-broker, and now a peace-maker. It will also provide another building block for the bottom-up approach of pacifying and resuscitating one central Somali government- the Holy Grail. Only time will tell. 

Somaliland vs Somalia: Why has Somaliland succeeded while mainland Somalia tops the list of failed states?

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2010/06/2010623123754251181.html.

Bob Marley I'M GONNA BE YOUR FRIEND: BOB MARLEY & THE WAILERS' DOWNLOAD FOR EAST AFRICA.

We need your support to save lives in East Africa where millions of children are facing starvation.

Bob Marley & The Wailers' 1973 track, High Tide or Low Tide, has been released as a download together with a powerful film – to raise awareness and much needed funds for the desperate situation in East Africa where millions of lives are threatened through starvation and lack of water. Bob's music has always conveyed a message of hope, unity and love. And this is a message needed now more than ever.
We must act now. Please help us save lives. Please be a friend.